La Niña winter ups and downs smack Michigan in next two weeks - MLive.com

This winter has been forecasted to have larger-than-normal swings in the weather pattern. The next two weeks are going to fit that weather description exactly.

In the next two weeks I see three strong warm-ups, two short-lived cool snaps and finally a longer lasting cold pattern settling in.

The temperature anomaly forecast through Tuesday, December 13 shows the rapid ups and downs I'm talking about.

Temperature anomaly forecast from Tuesday, November 29 to Tuesday, December 13 shows three sharp warm-ups and eventually a longer cold stretch.

The temperature pattern over Michigan for the next two weeks goes like this: A strong warm-up today, November 29. A two-day blast of wind and chill Wednesday into Thursday. Another strong warm-up Friday and half of Saturday, followed by just Sunday on the cold side. Another quick warm-up next Monday. Then it appears as though there will finally be an extended period of colder-than-normal temperatures overtaking Michigan around Tuesday, December 6.

The colder-than-normal air doesn't look to be super noteworthy, except for the fact that we could spend one whole week with temperatures five to 10 degrees colder than normal.

Here's a look at just what is normal across Michigan on December 5.

Long-term average high temperature for December 5

Just above, the normal high temperature on December 5 shows an average afternoon temperature of 38 degree to 40 degrees for the southern half of Lower Michigan. If we are looking at temperatures five to 10 degrees below average, we better get ready for a week of afternoons stuck between 28 degrees and 33 degrees. This isn't record cold for us, but it will feel like winter.

Long-term average low temperature for December 5

Normal low temperatures are in the 20s, so look for December 6 to December 13 to have morning temperatures dropping into the teens.

The rapid warm-ups today, Friday and Monday are going to be driven by strong storm systems tracking just north of Michigan. With this storm path, Michigan gets on the warm side of a cold front, with rain showers. Behind the cold fronts will be sharply colder air and some quick snow showers.

The windy conditions in the cold air will limit the amount of lake-effect snow because the cold air doesn't spend much time over a Great Lake.

Below is the total snowfall forecast now through December 13. You are looking at the ensemble mode of a model. The ensemble mode means the model is run with over 30 different starting conditions. It gives us a more reliable forecast when looking out two weeks. It also typically over-forecasts snow amounts.

Total snowfall forecast from the European Model in the ensemble mode shows relatively low new snow totals through December 13

Once we get into the cold air December 6, the storm situation is expected to slow down some. The total snowfall forecast shows only a few inches of snow over the next two weeks across southern Lower Michigan. The snow belt areas may have more than six inches. Both of these amounts are not heavy snow for the first two weeks of December.

Get ready for a very up-and-down temperature pattern in the next week. Then get ready for winter to be felt for a week.

Remember, one of the patterns identified as a potential theme for this winter is a rapid change from warm to cold to warm. The La Niña winter pattern is known to cause rapid temperature fluctuations.